Slower growth in the global manufacturing industry in 2026
Market researchers from Interact Analysis expect the global manufacturing industry to grow at a slower rate in 2026 than previously forecast
Output is expected to increase by 2.6%, compared to the previously estimated 2.9%. This is primarily due to the oil price shock as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran and disruptions in the sea route via the Strait of Hormuz as well as ongoing US tariffs. The average annual growth rate for the period from 2025 to 2030 has been reduced from 3.1% to 2.9%.
Asia remains the most dynamic region with an expected growth rate of 2.9% in 2026, while the Americas are at the lower end with 1.9%. Despite the correction, growth is still expected in all ten largest manufacturing economies.
Companies are responding to frequent global shocks with more robust supply chains and are moving away from just-in-time concepts. The current oil price shock should therefore initially only lead to a moderate decline in production. The semiconductor sector is developing more strongly: it is one of the fastest-growing sectors in eight of the ten largest manufacturing countries. The USA and South Korea are benefiting from high demand for chips, AI-driven data center investments and industrial policy support.
